SPIEGEL:

Monsieur Merckx, who is going to win the Tour de France?

Merckx: Lance Armstrong.

SPIEGEL: Why not Jan Ullrich? After all, he is as prepared as he's ever been and has promised a "monumental" race.

Merckx: It would, of course, be great if this year's tour were more exciting than last year's. In 2004, Armstrong's domination was alarming. But Ullrich won't beat him this year either.

SPIEGEL: What makes you so sure?

Merckx: I saw Armstrong at the (bike race) Dauphine Libere in France in June and I saw Ullrich at the Tour de Suisse. I just think that Armstrong is in better form. Plus, Lance is ending his career after the Tour and he definitely wants to go out a winner. His ambition is boundless and he gets a tremendous kick out of showing up everyone else. And if he does lose, it could be that this one defeat would stick in people's memories more than his record of six Tour victories in a row.

SPIEGEL: But Armstrong seems to be tired of racing. He already announced his retirement in April and admitted that his body can't keep up forever. Allegedly, he is only riding in France one last time because his contract with the new team sponsor Discovery Channel obliges him to do so.

Merckx: Last month, he visited me at my home in Belgium shortly before my 60th birthday and we did a bit of training together. He kept saying he would, "give everything at the Tour one last time and then it will all over." For him it is totally clear: He will win. Since that moment, I have been convinced that he will leave the bike racing stage as a champion.

SPIEGEL: Did Armstrong talk at all about Ullrich during your ride together?

Merckx: No. He didn't say a word about him.

SPIEGEL: On Armstrong's team, it has always been that everything has been subordinate to the goal of seeing Armstrong ride into Paris at the end of the Tour wearing the yellow jersey. Now, Ullrich's T-Mobile team has, for the first time, left Erik Zabel -- the six-time winner of the best sprinter on the Tour -- at home in order to fully concentrate on winning the race. Can one only win the tour with such a single-minded strategy?

Merckx: No. I even think it was a mistake that Zabel wasn't nominated. He isn't just a sprinter. He is a complete racer and a personality -- a fighter -- that has really helped his team in important moments in the past. His experience would definitely have been helpful.

SPIEGEL: The T-Mobile team, even without Zabel, is full of elite riders. Supporting Ullrich is Andreas Kloeden -- who was second in 2004 -- and Alexandre Vinokourov -- who was third in 2003. Armstrong has to pay attention to all of them and has to chase down every attack. Couldn't they wear him down if they take turns being aggressive?

Merckx: No. If Vinokourov beats Armstrong by three minutes one day and then loses them again the next day because Kloeden goes on the attack, it doesn't bother Armstrong at all. In the end, it all comes down to Ullrich beating Armstrong in the mountains in a man to man battle. That is difficult enough.

SPIEGEL: This is the last chance for Ullrich to beat his American arch-rival. Won't that provide him with extra motivation?

Merckx: Of course. But Jan isn't the carefree young racer he was in 1997, when he won the Tour at the age of 23. Back then, nobody expected him to win. I think that in the mean time, Ullrich has gotten mentally drained.

SPIEGEL: After Ullrich's victory, you called him a great talent and said that he could possibly win the tour more often than even you yourself did. Are you disappointed in him?

Merckx: Yes I am. Given his dominance back then, I was sure of his rosy future. I found him so impressive -- even more so because I had met him in 1993 when he won the amateur world championships in Oslo. But he wasn't up to the pressure and he just doesn't have the necessary motivation.

SPIEGEL: Ullrich simply doesn't want to sacrifice his entire year for bicycle racing. Can't you understand that?

Merckx: No, not in the least. One can really only be a serious athlete for ten years. One should possess enough discipline to control one's self during that period. Of course there is more to life than bicycle racing, and I didn't live like a priest either. I also blew off steam every now and then -- but not for an entire month at a time. I also had a tendency to put on weight very quickly. When I climbed on the scale in the winter and noticed that I had put on a couple of kilos, I would go nuts.

SPIEGEL: How did you get the problem under control?

Merckx: I would take my stationary bicycle and go into a 45 degrees Celsius sauna to train. Ullrich is not capable of doing the right thing. Talent by itself is not enough. If one doesn't work hard, one will never make it to the top of the heap.

SPIEGEL: The head of Ullrich's T-Mobile team, Walter Godefroot, is an old friend of yours. Has he ever complained about Ullrich to you?

Merckx: Quite often. We meet regularly and talk quite a bit on the telephone. He always says, "Jan has unbelievable ability, but he simply doesn't listen to me. He doesn't listen." I'm beginning to wonder if Ullrich actually ever wanted to become a bicycle racer.

SPIEGEL: What do you mean by that?

Merckx: Did he become a bicycle racer because he really likes riding? Or did he become a racer because the East German system (under which Ullrich grew up) forced him into it? His talent as a rider was discovered and so he had to ride for the glory of the state -- there was no way for him to say no. Sports have to be fun for younger people. For me, bicycle racing was always a passion and the best thing in the world. I think that for Ullrich, compulsion played too large of a role. Jan is a nice guy, but he is missing the massive ambition that Armstrong has.

SPIEGEL: And why did he never develop it?

Merckx: Jan started riding early and the demands were extremely high. He had to win. But at some point, one has to pay the price for being put under so much pressure early in life. The psyche just doesn't accept the rigor anymore and the need to win abates. At that point, one either quits or just gets comfortable, as Jan has. I can easily imagine that he said to himself at some point, "I can ride well so I'll become a professional racer." But he never had the passion -- the sacrifices are too large for him.

SPIEGEL: During last year's tour, Godefroot accused him of not being aggressive enough. Ullrich is not a "beast or a killer" he said.

Merckx: And he's right. It is possible to be a nice guy away from the race course, but to be ice cold and brutal while riding. Jan likes to subordinate himself. In 2004, he said he was prepared to ride behind Kloeden because he was in better shape. Armstrong would never do such a thing. Ullrich is also fond of saying that he is satisfied with second place, but I don't understand it. Of course one has to accept losing when the other was simply better. But you have to take a close look at why you lost and then try your hardest to avoid losing in the future. I learned from every defeat; Jan doesn't.

SPIEGEL: It's possible to learn to become a killer on a bicycle?

Part II: Armstrong's Opponents Know this Is their Last Chance.

Merckx: Absolutely. It is not difficult to constantly keep the goal of winning in mind. When I first got to know Lance Armstrong, he hadn't yet become a "killer."

SPIEGEL: When did you get to know him?

Merckx: During the Barcelona Olympic Games in 1992 -- at that time he rode a bicycle from my factory. Immediately afterwards, he became a professional for the Motorola Team; I supplied gear to the team at the time. A year later, he became world champion and rode with my son Axel in the Motorola team -- and again used one of my factory's bikes.

SPIEGEL: Did you imagine at the time that he had the ability to win the Tour six times?

Merckx: No, nobody did. He was a brawny guy, strong, wild and too heavy for steep climbs -- the typical rider for single-day races or flat stages. And he didn't live for the sport; he liked a drink every now and then and didn't always eat healthily. A beer here and there isn't a problem, but he didn't really exercise self-control. His bout with (testicular) cancer changed his entire lifestyle and today he credits the experience with his success.

SPIEGEL: Armstrong has the image of being a cold perfectionist, ambitious, ruthless and extremely goal oriented. Is he like that in his private life as well?

Merckx: No. In recent years, when he would head to Belgium after the Tour to ride in criterion races there, he sometimes stayed with me -- and it was always very convivial. He liked my wife's cooking, especially her risotto. I would put a bottle of good red wine on the table and we would talk about our families and children and less about bike racing. One time, he stayed an entire week with us, but sometimes I don't hear from him for two months.

SPIEGEL: Were you surprised when he announced his retirement on April 18?

Merckx: No, I knew already. On the evening after the Tour of Flanders race in early April -- two weeks before his press conference -- we spent some time together and he told me. I tried to dissuade him from calling it quits like he did. But the people he works with convinced him to do it this way.

SPIEGEL: What is wrong with the way he is doing it?

Merckx: I would have ridden the Tour and then made the announcement after it was over. But this way, everybody knows that it is his final Tour and there is even more pressure. His opponents know that it is their last chance to beat him.

SPIEGEL: Do you think his decision to quit is the right one?

Merckx: I can understand him. When I suddenly climbed down from my bicycle in 1978, I was 33 years old, almost as old as Lance is today. I was totally burned out; it really takes it out of you to constantly be the favorite that everyone wants to beat. The others are no longer riding just to win, but are riding so that you lose. When every victory is accompanied by disapproval, it's no longer fun anymore. The stress turned me into a nervous wreck sometimes. And don't forget that Lance survived cancer -- that too has left its mark on him.

SPIEGEL: It sounds like Armstrong will be happy when his career is over.

Merckx: I think he will be. He will surely miss bicycle racing, but he can't stand all the stuff that goes along with it anymore -- damned to victory and always traveling through Europe far away from his three children.

SPIEGEL: Armstrong is the most successful Tour de France racer of all time, but is he the best cyclist of all time?

Merckx: You mean, is he better than I was? I don't like such comparisons -- too much has changed in bicycle racing. I regret the fact that the great champions like Armstrong and Ullrich only place value in the Tour de France anymore. If everyone thought like that, then we would only have to organize one bicycle race a year. My career didn't only consist of the Tour de France. I wanted to win as many bicycle races as I could. I was maybe the best rider during my time just as Lance is the best rider of his. It doesn't go any further than that.

SPIEGEL: Despite his success, many don't like Armstrong. Why not?